Extraordinary interview! It’s credible but there are a lot of opportunities out there that would be missed out on if you just convert everything to gold today. Hypothetical question, if you were 50% gold and 50% silver, would you rebalance so you were more into gold or would gold always drag silver up with it? I find silver easier to buy due to its price.
There is not enough gold in the world for a gold standard. Politicians, corrupt by nature, would find ways to bypass it as would the Fed. Look at the shenanigans they are using to try and save Japan from imploding and further wrecking the dollar and causing bond rates to rise more than they have.
Who would set the value for gold? The government, not the markets. Therefore government could raise or lower the value to meet their outrageous spending needs. They could declare it illegal for the public to own. They could try and hoard gold as a means to increase spending ability.
It's not so much that fiat currency is bad, it's the systems of government that destroy it. The design of government is the problem, not the money.
Telling that recently the US provided Japan with a currency swap (¥\€), to defend the 💴, presumably to prevent UST sales? If Japan repatriated its vast overseas holdings it could save itself perhaps?
The Eurozone is no safe haven when shadow debts are taken into account.
If gold is the answer for govts, where best to hide it!?
Finally, Marc Faber was always keen to say that in a stable system credit grows roughly in line with economic activity. When was that last true? I guess that’s the discipline a gold standard instils and why politicians avoid it so doggedly?
Well that was a sobering start to my Sunday :) Even the basic point of don't hold cash or credit is something those scared of investing in gold or silver should be able to embrace.
Some very extreme/bold predictions here. At least he can’t be accused of fence sitting. I would push back a bit on the situation in Hormuz. By many accounts there has been an increase in traffic getting through under escort and the pipelines and other routes being built to work around the problem are also mitigating the oil price rise. Also on the Yen, it’s difficult to disagree with 240% debt to GDP being an existential problem. But as Robin J Brooks points out, they have massive foreign assets that mean the net debt is much lower. I agree that holding real assets is a good idea. I have been buying Brazilian farmland and uranium. I have not got a good track record of buying gold. If I buy, you should probably sell.
In a sea of noise that are 'experts' on the internet Alistair is one of a small band including yourself that cuts through. Great guest, enjoying both your substacks.
Another excellent interview! There’s no doubt Alasdair will have forgotten more about the financial system than I’ll ever know and he is fascinating to listen to, but I’m not convinced by the 18 month time frame for the collapse of fiat let alone a future return to any gold standard.
Slightly late catching up on this. I found Alasdair's views confusing. Our current problems largely derive from fractional reserve banking, yet Alasadair to my ear was promoting a form of fractional gold lending. How will that help? Surely we need a massive increase in the gold price to enable fully secured borrowing/lending.
What I understand about metals and geopolitics I’ve learned by listening to Alasdair. 👏🏼
He knows his onions all right
My two favourite people in one interview!!
Thank you
Extraordinary interview! It’s credible but there are a lot of opportunities out there that would be missed out on if you just convert everything to gold today. Hypothetical question, if you were 50% gold and 50% silver, would you rebalance so you were more into gold or would gold always drag silver up with it? I find silver easier to buy due to its price.
There are indeed a lot of opportunities you would miss out on.
There is not enough gold in the world for a gold standard. Politicians, corrupt by nature, would find ways to bypass it as would the Fed. Look at the shenanigans they are using to try and save Japan from imploding and further wrecking the dollar and causing bond rates to rise more than they have.
Who would set the value for gold? The government, not the markets. Therefore government could raise or lower the value to meet their outrageous spending needs. They could declare it illegal for the public to own. They could try and hoard gold as a means to increase spending ability.
It's not so much that fiat currency is bad, it's the systems of government that destroy it. The design of government is the problem, not the money.
Is it possible to hate Gordon Brown even more?!
Telling that recently the US provided Japan with a currency swap (¥\€), to defend the 💴, presumably to prevent UST sales? If Japan repatriated its vast overseas holdings it could save itself perhaps?
The Eurozone is no safe haven when shadow debts are taken into account.
If gold is the answer for govts, where best to hide it!?
Finally, Marc Faber was always keen to say that in a stable system credit grows roughly in line with economic activity. When was that last true? I guess that’s the discipline a gold standard instils and why politicians avoid it so doggedly?
Well that was a sobering start to my Sunday :) Even the basic point of don't hold cash or credit is something those scared of investing in gold or silver should be able to embrace.
Thanks Zak
Some very extreme/bold predictions here. At least he can’t be accused of fence sitting. I would push back a bit on the situation in Hormuz. By many accounts there has been an increase in traffic getting through under escort and the pipelines and other routes being built to work around the problem are also mitigating the oil price rise. Also on the Yen, it’s difficult to disagree with 240% debt to GDP being an existential problem. But as Robin J Brooks points out, they have massive foreign assets that mean the net debt is much lower. I agree that holding real assets is a good idea. I have been buying Brazilian farmland and uranium. I have not got a good track record of buying gold. If I buy, you should probably sell.
I bought some Greatland resources yesterday and today. I’d say my track record is still intact.
He's certainly not fence sitting!
Please can you let me know when you are buying gold :)
In a sea of noise that are 'experts' on the internet Alistair is one of a small band including yourself that cuts through. Great guest, enjoying both your substacks.
Thank you
Ok I know it's off topic (albeit sound money related) but did anyone else see the latest ridiculous BTC hit piece from the FT - https://www.ft.com/content/38d95298-8b9b-486a-96d3-0c6616972abb
BTC is responsible for systemic theft of aid. It's almost laughable.
:(
Dominic,
Where should people keep their gold?
Safest place you know. Would not keep it at home if you live in a UK city
Happy to store it for you at my place in Australia:)
Vault or bury it or a friend suggested bullionvault ?
Another excellent interview! There’s no doubt Alasdair will have forgotten more about the financial system than I’ll ever know and he is fascinating to listen to, but I’m not convinced by the 18 month time frame for the collapse of fiat let alone a future return to any gold standard.
Alastair is a wise man. Listen carefully!
Own gold. A paper dollar does not stop this collapse.
https://paretoinvestor.substack.com/p/the-dollar-is-collapsing-dont-lose-everything
Only those who owned hard assets, gold, real estate, productive businesses, or foreign currency, preserved any wealth through the crisis.
https://paretoinvestor.substack.com/p/the-coming-debt-crisis
Slightly late catching up on this. I found Alasdair's views confusing. Our current problems largely derive from fractional reserve banking, yet Alasadair to my ear was promoting a form of fractional gold lending. How will that help? Surely we need a massive increase in the gold price to enable fully secured borrowing/lending.