The Vaccine Stock Saga Continues: From Boom to Bust to Boom again?

A company with 30-bagger potential

About a year ago we looked at the “vaccine stocks”, noting that there had been a discernible change in narrative: no longer was the Covid-19 vaccine the thing that would save us, now it was killing us and lawsuits were coming. 

I’d forgot I’d even written that piece, and I was only reminded of it because of a message my buddy Swen Lorenz just sent me, and that is why I am re-visiting the story today. (If you don’t know Swen, he writes a brilliant letter, Undervalued Shares, and you should subscribe).

One of the companies I covered has one of the most up-and-down charts I’ve ever seen. It was $330 in 2021. Last year it was $10. Today it’s below $5.

“Remind me to buy it in about a year’s time at $5,” I said last year. “It’ll be $150 or $300 a couple of years after that. (Then remind me to sell it).”

Here’s the thing: that’s what Swen messaged me. It’s below $5. Time to buy?

Let’s take a look.

(This article, by the way, has nothing to do with the rights and wrongs of the Covid vaccine. So much has been said, I don’t really think my view is either here or there. But if you want it: I’m an each-to-their own guy. I do think there was a heck of a lot of misinformation, kids should not have been made to take it and now, to my eyes at least, it looks like there’s a massive cover-up going on. But that is not what this piece is about). 

The 8 main vaccine stocks 

1. Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) is the company most associated with the Covid vaccine, but it is not a “pure” play. It has many other products and patents that have nothing to do with Covid. In any case, its stock has fallen by more than 50%, but it now seems to have found a low. On the basis of the chart alone, I’d say being long Pfizer looks a reasonable bet with your risk managed around that double bottom marked below.

   

2. Biotechnology company BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX) teamed with Pfizer to produce the Pfizer vaccine with its key messenger RNA (mRNA) technology. It’s much more of a “vaccine bellwether” stock than Pfizer and it keeps on grinding lower.

   

3. Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) is also a purer play. This one looks like it might have turned up, after a poor run.

   

4. Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE: JNJ) sold its vaccine at cost during the pandemic and, like Pfizer, is diversified with numerous other products. I’m including it here though, as an FYI, and I’m posting a long-term chart because it tells such a story. This must be one of the best-ever long-term holds for any fund-manager, grinding higher year in year out. It was a 50c stock in 1980. It hit $176 in 2020, since when it has come off a bit.

   

   What’s the next Johnson and Johnson? That’s what I’d like to know.

5. AstraZeneca (LON: AZN) was another early winner in the vaccine race, before it got embroiled in disputes with the European Union. Like Johnson and Johnson, it is also heavily diversified with other products and it also initially delivered the vaccines at cost. Also like Johnson and Johnson, it has been a great long-term buy-and-hold, but one has come off a bit in the last year or two.

   

6. Turning now to the smaller-cap plays, Ocugen (NASDAQ: OCGN) (market cap roughly $500 million) partnered with Indian drug company, Bharat Biotech, and has a vaccine authorised in India. How about this for a nuts chart? From $17 to 34c! Hard to find a sector that’s worse than junior mining, but vaxstocks may be it. But this one also looks like it may have turned up, and thus that the worst is behind it.

   

7. Vaxart (NASDAQ: VXRT), market cap around $220 million, is developing an oral vaccination tablet. That went from $25 to 50c. My gosh. At $1.25 it also looks like it may have turned up.

   

8. Finally we come to the company in question. How about this for a chart?

   

Mighty swings from single and low-double digits to triple digits with incredible regularity. 

Without knowing anything about the company, on the basis of that chart alone, I am sorely tempted to risk a mite more than a nominal sum down here below $5, wait for the “inevitable” swing to $150, then bag thirty times my money!