Yes, Daily Mail has recently had a couple of big articles about gold – based on recent observations that can indicate significant falls in price fall within a couple of weeks, after the public has been sucked in due to FOMO – e.g. their couple of articles on Microstrategy around its peak, the share price has been a disaster ever since.
However, I recall when Bitcoin hit a parabolic peak of almost 20K in 2017, when I walked into the office everybody was talking about it (none of them are actually interested in financial stuff), in the pub at lunchtime the people at the table next to me were talking about it, every advert in the tube carriage was about buying crypto – this hasn’t happened with gold yet in my personal experience, so if and when that happens it could well be the final ‘top’
I remember these times well, and remember thinking the exact same thing at the time.
Not as many people are talking about gold in my experience - but my social interactions are different these days - therefore I might not be the most accurate bearer of news.
I'm hearing many suppliers are very low in stock, which suggests that gold is now not just central banks stocking up.
Gold is real money - so the price "rising" against paper fiat crap doesn't mean much to me as I won't be selling any of my physical holdings.
Great articles this week. Friday I sold my Leveraged gold position (up 70% in six weeks) and bought into Almadex and Sierra Madre. Means I can now stop watching my portfolio every day and touch grass. Really enjoying The Secret History of Gold. Interesting that BTC fear and greed index hit extreme fear levels this week (23/100).
Fred Hickey, an old timer on X: " Yesterday's steep selloff in gold (and the other precious metals) was not that surprising given the huge moves up in recent weeks/months and the extremely high sentiment levels (DSIs, RSIs etc.). Gold was clearly very overbought. Some of the technical traders (concerned about Friday's reversal, "bearish engulfing candle" and such) are calling for a several hundred-dollar gold correction...and they may be right.
However, a couple of the indicators I follow did not go to the extreme levels that have occurred prior to virtually all major corrections. Gold futures open interest has remained quite subdued, hovering around the 500K level (which is very moderate), and that indicates that Managed Money (levered hedge funds and commodity futures traders) likely were not over their skis long gold prior to the selloff (though we don't have the exact Managed Money numbers due to the government shutdown).
Also, the Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF) premium/discount was around a 3% discount leading up to yesterday. At all the prior tops I've witnessed, the CEF was either at a premium or at least near the zero level. Currently, the CEF is at a deep 5.07% discount - which in the past has been a strong buy signal for gold.
So, while I can see the healthy correction option occurring, one should keep in mind the possibility the selloff could be very brief - just enough to put all the "wise guy" traders on the sidelines (again) before this huge secular gold (and silver) bull market resumes its ascent." I don't know about leveraged positions but otherwise a little profit taking at these levels perhaps but otherwise keep your nerve; this bull market has not topped out yet.
Panglossian view. Explains gold’s rise; secondary banking system: the cockroaches are not termites, the system will hold – AI is a rational bubble. He cld be right, but when a bubble pops how is that rational? Perhaps like the railways in the 19th century: qua investment, poor; qua economic benefit, transformative.
His price target for gold this year 5,000.00 US$. I wonder what his target is for next. On his thesis, I would have thought gold will peak at a lower level (only a guess). Goldman’s most recent price for gold this year 4,900.00 US$. Steve Hanke says gold to peak at 6,000.00 US$. Pierre Lassonde, who is a gold bug but has become a billionaire managing one of the gold companies, says 17,000.00 US$ or thereabouts. The mining companies should be on a tear soon.
Seems like this slam on Friday coincides with the options expiration date, making a lower price something of a necessity. Of course to feel that that’s of any relevance you have to buy into the theory that the Fed and tame banks are manipulating the price (and have been for a long time). Other opinions are available. Be interesting to see if it’s up again Monday morning once China gets back onto the playing field (as has so often been the case recently).
I dumped my Physical Silver trading positions on Friday and my 2× leveraged trade in LSIL, which has been making me nervous recently. I'm mindful that a -50% day would have wiped me out in that thing. Although I doubt we'll see that kind of single day fall in a corrective phase, -20 - 30% is a definite risk.
A bit scary, specially after yesterday. A bit of a note and question at the same time here based on recent events. Some say the gold sell off was due to liquidity, selling your gold to cover calls. I had a similar experience just two weeks ago. Via the Pure Gold company, just 7 months ago, I bought gold, not a lot. Then an unexpected problem reared its ugly head so i looked at where I could realise some cash. I was pleased to note that my gold investment on paper had increased by nearly 25%, woohoo. I asked Pure Gold Company for a valuation with a view to selling, not woohoo, more are you extracting yellow liquid. The valuation would have realise just 8% had I sold. I queried this and I was told that that is how the market works, we buy at a premium add about 10% and when we sell we have a 20% spread. My balloon had been popped. Whilst I understood that margins would be wider due to the nature of the market I wasn’t expecting to be golden fleeced. Is this typical of this market?
A further comment and then shutting on the subject. Vince Lanci comments that the price action over the last few days looks in his (highly experienced) view as if the US has stepped in to defend the dollar as gold is now rising too fast for comfort, with the CCP counterpunching. The US used to do the same with every 2% rise, he records, and with gold all but at $4400 they had no choice but to go big (or go home, obvs).
Certainly the timing of the slams ('good night China, get this in the bawbag' to quote my Glaswegian buddy) when the east is less likely to respond - and the subsequent early in the day rises when China is up and about again - do lend a little credence to that narrative. Doubtless some will see that as biased, I guess we all chose a narrative.
Lanci thinks this will continue all the way to the trade negotiations, as the two parties fight it out against the backdrop of what Doomberg called the CCP's nuclear strike of the rare earths embargo, quite possibly intended to bloodlessly roll the US presence all the way back to Pearl again (if you can't build F35s or the missiles they shoot how are you going to contest the airspace that you need to control to push your carriers forwards?). Does the CCP have Trump on the ropes? His effective apology to Xi kind of indicates it does, as does Bessent's whistling in the dark about 'does China want to go to war with the world?'
The geopolitical aspects of this - if that's a theory you subscribe to - are fascinating. Not to mention disquieting. And no, I'm not in any way linked to China other than having worked there in the 2010s...just a long term stacker with some mining shares that are making me nervous and a degree in War Studies :-)
Question answered by a new ATH? Much more than a dead cat bounce… Miners recovering their losses too, a little less confident there. Poised to pivot to SIL.
Yes, Daily Mail has recently had a couple of big articles about gold – based on recent observations that can indicate significant falls in price fall within a couple of weeks, after the public has been sucked in due to FOMO – e.g. their couple of articles on Microstrategy around its peak, the share price has been a disaster ever since.
However, I recall when Bitcoin hit a parabolic peak of almost 20K in 2017, when I walked into the office everybody was talking about it (none of them are actually interested in financial stuff), in the pub at lunchtime the people at the table next to me were talking about it, every advert in the tube carriage was about buying crypto – this hasn’t happened with gold yet in my personal experience, so if and when that happens it could well be the final ‘top’
Yes. Maybe. And that was only an interim top. Bitcoin is a lot higher now.
I remember these times well, and remember thinking the exact same thing at the time.
Not as many people are talking about gold in my experience - but my social interactions are different these days - therefore I might not be the most accurate bearer of news.
I'm hearing many suppliers are very low in stock, which suggests that gold is now not just central banks stocking up.
Gold is real money - so the price "rising" against paper fiat crap doesn't mean much to me as I won't be selling any of my physical holdings.
Nor me
Great articles this week. Friday I sold my Leveraged gold position (up 70% in six weeks) and bought into Almadex and Sierra Madre. Means I can now stop watching my portfolio every day and touch grass. Really enjoying The Secret History of Gold. Interesting that BTC fear and greed index hit extreme fear levels this week (23/100).
Thanks 🙏 Zak. Good luck!
Where are you buying sierra madre? I can’t seem to find it on ah bell or Freetrade
Interactive Brokers too
I bought on Hargreaves Lansdown
I use Interactive Investor
https://www.ii.co.uk/recommend-ii?ii_referrer=5bcdace2-a344-405b-b8c3-d3c83ac296d5
Fred Hickey, an old timer on X: " Yesterday's steep selloff in gold (and the other precious metals) was not that surprising given the huge moves up in recent weeks/months and the extremely high sentiment levels (DSIs, RSIs etc.). Gold was clearly very overbought. Some of the technical traders (concerned about Friday's reversal, "bearish engulfing candle" and such) are calling for a several hundred-dollar gold correction...and they may be right.
However, a couple of the indicators I follow did not go to the extreme levels that have occurred prior to virtually all major corrections. Gold futures open interest has remained quite subdued, hovering around the 500K level (which is very moderate), and that indicates that Managed Money (levered hedge funds and commodity futures traders) likely were not over their skis long gold prior to the selloff (though we don't have the exact Managed Money numbers due to the government shutdown).
Also, the Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF) premium/discount was around a 3% discount leading up to yesterday. At all the prior tops I've witnessed, the CEF was either at a premium or at least near the zero level. Currently, the CEF is at a deep 5.07% discount - which in the past has been a strong buy signal for gold.
So, while I can see the healthy correction option occurring, one should keep in mind the possibility the selloff could be very brief - just enough to put all the "wise guy" traders on the sidelines (again) before this huge secular gold (and silver) bull market resumes its ascent." I don't know about leveraged positions but otherwise a little profit taking at these levels perhaps but otherwise keep your nerve; this bull market has not topped out yet.
That’s kind of my thoughts too
Mohamed El-Erian
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/10/20/the-ai-bubble-is-a-rational-bubble-says-mohamed-el-erian.html
Panglossian view. Explains gold’s rise; secondary banking system: the cockroaches are not termites, the system will hold – AI is a rational bubble. He cld be right, but when a bubble pops how is that rational? Perhaps like the railways in the 19th century: qua investment, poor; qua economic benefit, transformative.
His price target for gold this year 5,000.00 US$. I wonder what his target is for next. On his thesis, I would have thought gold will peak at a lower level (only a guess). Goldman’s most recent price for gold this year 4,900.00 US$. Steve Hanke says gold to peak at 6,000.00 US$. Pierre Lassonde, who is a gold bug but has become a billionaire managing one of the gold companies, says 17,000.00 US$ or thereabouts. The mining companies should be on a tear soon.
"Events, my dear boy, events" Harold Macmillan.
Interesting on bitcoin.
Seems like this slam on Friday coincides with the options expiration date, making a lower price something of a necessity. Of course to feel that that’s of any relevance you have to buy into the theory that the Fed and tame banks are manipulating the price (and have been for a long time). Other opinions are available. Be interesting to see if it’s up again Monday morning once China gets back onto the playing field (as has so often been the case recently).
Ref current gold and silver price - wasn’t it Warren Buffet who said be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy!
Receny, people have not been fearful though, and one significant red day does not equal a flush of the easily terrified...
Yup
Attributed I think but yes
Still waiting for the Economist cover…
True
The Royal Mint’s website this morning
I dumped my Physical Silver trading positions on Friday and my 2× leveraged trade in LSIL, which has been making me nervous recently. I'm mindful that a -50% day would have wiped me out in that thing. Although I doubt we'll see that kind of single day fall in a corrective phase, -20 - 30% is a definite risk.
Well done
A bit scary, specially after yesterday. A bit of a note and question at the same time here based on recent events. Some say the gold sell off was due to liquidity, selling your gold to cover calls. I had a similar experience just two weeks ago. Via the Pure Gold company, just 7 months ago, I bought gold, not a lot. Then an unexpected problem reared its ugly head so i looked at where I could realise some cash. I was pleased to note that my gold investment on paper had increased by nearly 25%, woohoo. I asked Pure Gold Company for a valuation with a view to selling, not woohoo, more are you extracting yellow liquid. The valuation would have realise just 8% had I sold. I queried this and I was told that that is how the market works, we buy at a premium add about 10% and when we sell we have a 20% spread. My balloon had been popped. Whilst I understood that margins would be wider due to the nature of the market I wasn’t expecting to be golden fleeced. Is this typical of this market?
A further comment and then shutting on the subject. Vince Lanci comments that the price action over the last few days looks in his (highly experienced) view as if the US has stepped in to defend the dollar as gold is now rising too fast for comfort, with the CCP counterpunching. The US used to do the same with every 2% rise, he records, and with gold all but at $4400 they had no choice but to go big (or go home, obvs).
Certainly the timing of the slams ('good night China, get this in the bawbag' to quote my Glaswegian buddy) when the east is less likely to respond - and the subsequent early in the day rises when China is up and about again - do lend a little credence to that narrative. Doubtless some will see that as biased, I guess we all chose a narrative.
Lanci thinks this will continue all the way to the trade negotiations, as the two parties fight it out against the backdrop of what Doomberg called the CCP's nuclear strike of the rare earths embargo, quite possibly intended to bloodlessly roll the US presence all the way back to Pearl again (if you can't build F35s or the missiles they shoot how are you going to contest the airspace that you need to control to push your carriers forwards?). Does the CCP have Trump on the ropes? His effective apology to Xi kind of indicates it does, as does Bessent's whistling in the dark about 'does China want to go to war with the world?'
The geopolitical aspects of this - if that's a theory you subscribe to - are fascinating. Not to mention disquieting. And no, I'm not in any way linked to China other than having worked there in the 2010s...just a long term stacker with some mining shares that are making me nervous and a degree in War Studies :-)
Question answered by a new ATH? Much more than a dead cat bounce… Miners recovering their losses too, a little less confident there. Poised to pivot to SIL.