My totally non expert take on this week’s silver action: 1. the move went too far too fast and a puke inducing pull back was on the cards. I’m glad I resisted buying any more (for now). 2. Silver is still back to a level at which most of us would have given our right arm for 12 months ago. 3. It gave up more in one day than it cost per ounce not that long ago. 4. It ain’t over til it’s over and I don’t think silver is anywhere near done yet. It might even take a few years, but prices stabilising at a significantly higher level would bode well for the future. 5. At some stage I need to sell up, take the profits and be done with it…but not yet.
Thank you Dom. It was indeed a violent move not helped by:
1. End of month profit taking after an extraordinary January
2. CME raising margins (again)
3. The new Fed Chair pick seen as being more hawkish
However, fundamentally I feel like not much has changed. Silver is still a 'strategic metal', US defense spending is increasing by 50% and supply is still very limited.
I have heard 2or 3 times recently that the problem with the silver market is the disjunct between paper and physical silver. That the crash is almost entirely due to paper short positions being closed. Physical silver oth is in very short supply. I checked the Royal Mint and a lot of their investment grade products are out of stock (plenty of kitschy commemorative stuff). Any thoughts?
Coin supply always struggles when there is a sudden uptick in demand. It eventually gets back in balance. There’s nothing one can do about what goes on in th paper markets and they have been “about to implode” for decades. So I don’t waste energy thinking about it.
Where were the comex halts? This was not panic selling. This was a coordinated take down by banks who have too much to lose. Asian prices didnt puke. Silver is repricing and long term the banksters cant do a thing about it. Non physical western exchanges such as the likes of lbma and comex are dead men walking. Lets see if they can survive the massive delivery months ahead. I hear a large sucking sound as physical continues to inexorably migrate to the East.
I took large % but small notional profit on Silver at 100 and Gold at 5500 plus sold the tax trade Healwell flat as does not seem to be moving and needed the cash elsewhere. Will make a call re comstock post the Tuesday call but if it crashes I cannot say I was not warned! Any views on the recent BTC drop with long positions being pulled?
I struggle to believe that Kevin Warsh‘s nomination as future FED chief is going to single handedly save the dollar and brings the precious metals supercycle to an end…..and gold and silver are already recovering (GO, Sierra Madre! 🚀)
My totally non expert take on this week’s silver action: 1. the move went too far too fast and a puke inducing pull back was on the cards. I’m glad I resisted buying any more (for now). 2. Silver is still back to a level at which most of us would have given our right arm for 12 months ago. 3. It gave up more in one day than it cost per ounce not that long ago. 4. It ain’t over til it’s over and I don’t think silver is anywhere near done yet. It might even take a few years, but prices stabilising at a significantly higher level would bode well for the future. 5. At some stage I need to sell up, take the profits and be done with it…but not yet.
Great post SD. Don’t disagree with a word
Thank you Dom. It was indeed a violent move not helped by:
1. End of month profit taking after an extraordinary January
2. CME raising margins (again)
3. The new Fed Chair pick seen as being more hawkish
However, fundamentally I feel like not much has changed. Silver is still a 'strategic metal', US defense spending is increasing by 50% and supply is still very limited.
For me it's not over, buying on further weakness
You could be right :)
Dipped a toe in at $75. Let's see how it goes
Good luck!
Closed at $88.40
I have heard 2or 3 times recently that the problem with the silver market is the disjunct between paper and physical silver. That the crash is almost entirely due to paper short positions being closed. Physical silver oth is in very short supply. I checked the Royal Mint and a lot of their investment grade products are out of stock (plenty of kitschy commemorative stuff). Any thoughts?
Coin supply always struggles when there is a sudden uptick in demand. It eventually gets back in balance. There’s nothing one can do about what goes on in th paper markets and they have been “about to implode” for decades. So I don’t waste energy thinking about it.
Lunar metal - good knowledge!
:)
Does not drive you mad that we can not buy BTC ETFs in the isas with this pullback on price? So annoying
Depending on broker, BOLD could be an option if happy to mix gold / BTC?
I think it depends on your Broker. But yes, infuriating.
https://open.substack.com/pub/metalsandminers/p/silver-and-the-10-sigma-crash-a-statistical?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1n2x0v
Many thanks Lawrence. Always good to know the other views even if you don’t see things quite the same way.
Where were the comex halts? This was not panic selling. This was a coordinated take down by banks who have too much to lose. Asian prices didnt puke. Silver is repricing and long term the banksters cant do a thing about it. Non physical western exchanges such as the likes of lbma and comex are dead men walking. Lets see if they can survive the massive delivery months ahead. I hear a large sucking sound as physical continues to inexorably migrate to the East.
I took large % but small notional profit on Silver at 100 and Gold at 5500 plus sold the tax trade Healwell flat as does not seem to be moving and needed the cash elsewhere. Will make a call re comstock post the Tuesday call but if it crashes I cannot say I was not warned! Any views on the recent BTC drop with long positions being pulled?
I think those lows from April last year will be retested. Thought that for a while. Retest coming now. Bitcoin is not a loved market at the moment.
I struggle to believe that Kevin Warsh‘s nomination as future FED chief is going to single handedly save the dollar and brings the precious metals supercycle to an end…..and gold and silver are already recovering (GO, Sierra Madre! 🚀)