Dominic, there is a concerted effort from Western Governments to replace White people in their own countries. White people make up only 7% of the global population and the current flood of illegal immigration (almost all fighting age and male) into western nations is clearly not an accident. We cannot vote our way out of these problems.
Morning Terrence, I don't think it's quite as deliberate as that. Because of modern transport, more people can move further faster. Because of modern communication more people are aware of better lives to be had in the west. Then there is displacement due to war, hunger, water, economic desire. Western leaders have failed to see it coming, failed to see what is next, are too scared to stand up for their people (because they have been educated to loathe them and they are scared to be called racist) and here we are ... But that's just my view of things. I could well be wrong
Another outstanding piece, thank you Dominic. I trust you'll be watching the SA elections in May with interest. I predict the end of the ANC (they are morally, ethically, and now also FISCALLY bankrupt) and face losing majorities in provinces KZN and Gauteng as well as large and important financial cities of Durban, Joburg, Pretoria, Gqeberha/Port Elizabeth with the ANC due to lose even further seats at all levels of government in the Western Cape, erstwhile the only Province that is not and has not been run by the ANC at any level for time, as well as other provinces nationwide. These provinces and cities probably make up 90% of SA's entire GDP. The organs of state that might create unrest or precipitate a revolution or power grab by the ANC have failed. There is no army and the police are outnumbered 50:1 Private security to SAPS Copper on the beat. The Party itself is bankrupt and has found there last remaining assets being secured by bailiffs. The Reserve Bank has not printed money to attempt to create hyperinflation and radical, extremist politics. The Rand is severely undervalued at current ZARGBP of 24. This land will soon be rid of the ANC, forever banished to a small party if rural, poor and uneducated, from which significant more of its people can rise. The libertarianism of South Africa is complete: no big brother, no CCTV, no woke allowed, no woke take over of institutions, no petty rules, no jobsworths, no intrusion from govt or govt organs (incompetent, no vision for the future, and bankrupt, an unfortunate trio of factors for government which I quite like), no refugee crisis, limited anti-Christian white male, a revenue (SARS) and a reserve bank not captured by Zuma and the Guptas. For R120,000 (£5k) anyone with a balance sheet illustrating R12m (£500k) in net assets / equity can reside and come and go without limit in South Africa. Food is incredible and 3 times cheaper than the UK. Pretty much everything is 2-3 times cheaper than the UK. The weather on the Sunshine Coast is mint year round and the nine provinces offer something completely unique to those who get to travel them. Come and visit and invest soon! (Go well that side!)
I do not buy the cost argument on birth rates; for a start it is a global phenomena. A common misunderstanding about the Baby Boom is that it was a post-war occurrence. In reality, it started in Europe and North America from the mid-1930s (1937 in Britain). These were societies mired in the Great Depression; so full of people struggling to make ends meet. What the Boom did follow was a massive rise in marriage rates, across all social classes, which remains unexplained. It does, however, suggest that finding a way to raise marriage rates may reverse the global decline in birth rates.
Yes, but in the context of the time people could still afford somehwere to live, or they lived with extended families. So they could afford kids in a way they can't now ... But agreed marriage increases would help a lot ...
This article has an interesting explanation for the developed world, though I do not see it applying in the global south. BLUF Men have 3 functions, the 3 Ps: Protect; Provide; and Procreate. For women, they must be credible with the first 2 Ps to allow the 3rd. The effeminisation of our society has made the first P toxic. Fiat inflation has undermined the second. Consequently, the third P is not happening.
For the housing cost argument to be credible, it needs to explain what has changed. Basic necessities, including housing, have consumed the vast majority of people’s incomes until very recently in the developed world. They still do for most people, today, in the global south (where birth rates are also falling). Fiat inflation is undoubtedly eroding real income in the developed world but it is only regressing disposable income towards historic norms, when people were happy to start families. Why will people not start families when they have roughly the same wealth, in real terms, as their greatest generation (great) grandparents? Why are people in the global south, who have never seen Western wealth, also not having children?
Well, indeed. I guess religion or lack thereof … plus the knowledge that no so long ago you could have had the house plus disposable income and so you want it now. I still think the cost reality for the average young renter is a massive deterrent but I take your point
Indeed, is that not part of the reason they are engineering this influx (here, and in Ireland and elsewhere)—because they know that they are not reproducing, so they need to import allies?
That’s one interpretation. I don’t see it as quite so planned. Mass movement of people is happening and left leaning governments are either incapable or unwilling to defend borders.
Since we do not know for sure, it seems a lot of this might come down to one's heuristic: is the explanation for the undesirable event incompetence or evil?
I tend to assume base venality at lower levels and among the rank and file (primarily the desire to signal "virtue" to oneself and to the collective).
For the middle ranks (the bureaucracy and lower-level operatives), I tend to assume incompetence.
But somewhere up at the higher reaches, among the architects and cognoscenti, my instincts always lead me to assume deep planning, with objectives that you and I would not consider good.
But that is just my heuristic. It does not mean it is correct, or correct in every case.
Excellent. While I think you are right about declining birth rates in the west / developed (???) world ie it’s just too effing expensive to have children, there are other factors in the “developing” world. Increasing urbanisation has meant that women there now have better access to birth control, education and employment and are under less pressure from their tribal, traditional, agricultural societies to get married and have children. But fundamentally I think you are right - this is Mother Nature reacting to population growth, by switching it off - how exactly she is doing it is almost beside the point. Unfortunately the one group who seem to be immune to this are the elites - they seem to be getting and staying marrried, and reproducing at above replacement level, rather more than the rest of us. Which, evolutionarily speaking, is perhaps the point. Soon we will all be hairdressers and telephone sanitisers (that’s a HHGTTG reference, btw). When they’ve all left for Golgafrincham or wherever it was, perhaps we can get on with our lives.
How about just simply a case of declining fertility due to good old simple poisoning- pesticides, the contraceptive pill flooding the oceans, meat made with growth hormone etc….
Yeah…..urgh climate change and career…. Birthgap doc says that there are so many women with unplanned childlessness because they focussed on their career…once a women turns 30 without a child, only one in 2 go on to have another…of those that have had their first, the proportions that go on to have a second, third, fourth etc are the same as 100 years ago….its getting the first out that is causing all the problems…
Dominic, First rate, thanks.
Thank you
Really important subject. Hope you will return to it.
My dad was a humble printer in the 70s. Bought a 3 bedroom house in a nice suburb of London, had a stay at home wife and 2 children.
Also great point about the GDP. The "GDP line going up" is the new religion that's captured our elites.
We must expose this madness.
Thank you!
Dominic, there is a concerted effort from Western Governments to replace White people in their own countries. White people make up only 7% of the global population and the current flood of illegal immigration (almost all fighting age and male) into western nations is clearly not an accident. We cannot vote our way out of these problems.
Morning Terrence, I don't think it's quite as deliberate as that. Because of modern transport, more people can move further faster. Because of modern communication more people are aware of better lives to be had in the west. Then there is displacement due to war, hunger, water, economic desire. Western leaders have failed to see it coming, failed to see what is next, are too scared to stand up for their people (because they have been educated to loathe them and they are scared to be called racist) and here we are ... But that's just my view of things. I could well be wrong
Another outstanding piece, thank you Dominic. I trust you'll be watching the SA elections in May with interest. I predict the end of the ANC (they are morally, ethically, and now also FISCALLY bankrupt) and face losing majorities in provinces KZN and Gauteng as well as large and important financial cities of Durban, Joburg, Pretoria, Gqeberha/Port Elizabeth with the ANC due to lose even further seats at all levels of government in the Western Cape, erstwhile the only Province that is not and has not been run by the ANC at any level for time, as well as other provinces nationwide. These provinces and cities probably make up 90% of SA's entire GDP. The organs of state that might create unrest or precipitate a revolution or power grab by the ANC have failed. There is no army and the police are outnumbered 50:1 Private security to SAPS Copper on the beat. The Party itself is bankrupt and has found there last remaining assets being secured by bailiffs. The Reserve Bank has not printed money to attempt to create hyperinflation and radical, extremist politics. The Rand is severely undervalued at current ZARGBP of 24. This land will soon be rid of the ANC, forever banished to a small party if rural, poor and uneducated, from which significant more of its people can rise. The libertarianism of South Africa is complete: no big brother, no CCTV, no woke allowed, no woke take over of institutions, no petty rules, no jobsworths, no intrusion from govt or govt organs (incompetent, no vision for the future, and bankrupt, an unfortunate trio of factors for government which I quite like), no refugee crisis, limited anti-Christian white male, a revenue (SARS) and a reserve bank not captured by Zuma and the Guptas. For R120,000 (£5k) anyone with a balance sheet illustrating R12m (£500k) in net assets / equity can reside and come and go without limit in South Africa. Food is incredible and 3 times cheaper than the UK. Pretty much everything is 2-3 times cheaper than the UK. The weather on the Sunshine Coast is mint year round and the nine provinces offer something completely unique to those who get to travel them. Come and visit and invest soon! (Go well that side!)
Well what a positive write up!
A lot of people are talking up the Cape at the minute on the nomad forums I've noticed.
QI: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLUNPUFqHEk Happy holidays! x
I do not buy the cost argument on birth rates; for a start it is a global phenomena. A common misunderstanding about the Baby Boom is that it was a post-war occurrence. In reality, it started in Europe and North America from the mid-1930s (1937 in Britain). These were societies mired in the Great Depression; so full of people struggling to make ends meet. What the Boom did follow was a massive rise in marriage rates, across all social classes, which remains unexplained. It does, however, suggest that finding a way to raise marriage rates may reverse the global decline in birth rates.
Yes, but in the context of the time people could still afford somehwere to live, or they lived with extended families. So they could afford kids in a way they can't now ... But agreed marriage increases would help a lot ...
https://open.substack.com/pub/himkingemperorpenguin/p/the-manhood-question?r=z3b3q&utm_medium=ios
This article has an interesting explanation for the developed world, though I do not see it applying in the global south. BLUF Men have 3 functions, the 3 Ps: Protect; Provide; and Procreate. For women, they must be credible with the first 2 Ps to allow the 3rd. The effeminisation of our society has made the first P toxic. Fiat inflation has undermined the second. Consequently, the third P is not happening.
Yes, indeed.
For the housing cost argument to be credible, it needs to explain what has changed. Basic necessities, including housing, have consumed the vast majority of people’s incomes until very recently in the developed world. They still do for most people, today, in the global south (where birth rates are also falling). Fiat inflation is undoubtedly eroding real income in the developed world but it is only regressing disposable income towards historic norms, when people were happy to start families. Why will people not start families when they have roughly the same wealth, in real terms, as their greatest generation (great) grandparents? Why are people in the global south, who have never seen Western wealth, also not having children?
Well, indeed. I guess religion or lack thereof … plus the knowledge that no so long ago you could have had the house plus disposable income and so you want it now. I still think the cost reality for the average young renter is a massive deterrent but I take your point
I think there’s a good article on Aporia about just this
A banging post Dominic. Excellent stuff.
Why thank you!
I was reading recently that in America, the only cohort above replacement rate are conservatives (largely religious conservatives) in the heartland.
This means, or would seem to mean, that all they need to do is
a) keep it up, and
b) not allow their children to be indoctrinated by the loony left,
and if they do those two things, in 100 years or so, they inherit the land. Demographics is destiny.
Even at current levels of immigration?
No, that would have to change.
Indeed, is that not part of the reason they are engineering this influx (here, and in Ireland and elsewhere)—because they know that they are not reproducing, so they need to import allies?
That’s one interpretation. I don’t see it as quite so planned. Mass movement of people is happening and left leaning governments are either incapable or unwilling to defend borders.
Since we do not know for sure, it seems a lot of this might come down to one's heuristic: is the explanation for the undesirable event incompetence or evil?
I tend to assume base venality at lower levels and among the rank and file (primarily the desire to signal "virtue" to oneself and to the collective).
For the middle ranks (the bureaucracy and lower-level operatives), I tend to assume incompetence.
But somewhere up at the higher reaches, among the architects and cognoscenti, my instincts always lead me to assume deep planning, with objectives that you and I would not consider good.
But that is just my heuristic. It does not mean it is correct, or correct in every case.
Wise words
You ever seen the documentary “birthgap”? Part one is free on YouTube. Parts 2 and 3 you have to pay for
No I should watch it.
Congratulations Dom on your massive retweet. I heard about it on Geoff's podcast. Great song by the way👍 Completely accurate.
Not my personal favourite though. I like it, but Programmable Money is an absolute work of art. I love it😃👍 CBDC..😃
I wonder if Elon has heard that one??..
Thank you. I'm so glad you like Programmable Money. I have a feeling it's time will come ...
Absolutely!😃👍
I always used to describe my parenting style as "active neglect" and all along I was actually practicing "positive non-intervention" ! Who knew ?
hahaha. You should have an economist write about it
Excellent. While I think you are right about declining birth rates in the west / developed (???) world ie it’s just too effing expensive to have children, there are other factors in the “developing” world. Increasing urbanisation has meant that women there now have better access to birth control, education and employment and are under less pressure from their tribal, traditional, agricultural societies to get married and have children. But fundamentally I think you are right - this is Mother Nature reacting to population growth, by switching it off - how exactly she is doing it is almost beside the point. Unfortunately the one group who seem to be immune to this are the elites - they seem to be getting and staying marrried, and reproducing at above replacement level, rather more than the rest of us. Which, evolutionarily speaking, is perhaps the point. Soon we will all be hairdressers and telephone sanitisers (that’s a HHGTTG reference, btw). When they’ve all left for Golgafrincham or wherever it was, perhaps we can get on with our lives.
How about just simply a case of declining fertility due to good old simple poisoning- pesticides, the contraceptive pill flooding the oceans, meat made with growth hormone etc….
No doubt a factor, but even those that can, aren't ...
Yeah…..urgh climate change and career…. Birthgap doc says that there are so many women with unplanned childlessness because they focussed on their career…once a women turns 30 without a child, only one in 2 go on to have another…of those that have had their first, the proportions that go on to have a second, third, fourth etc are the same as 100 years ago….its getting the first out that is causing all the problems…
It's a habit!
Thanks David. Agreed Increasing urbanisation et al are all part of getting richer, I guess.
I really enjoy these Sunday podcasts. Thank you.
Quick question - delighted to hear Life After the State is back in print. An excellent read. Have you gone down the self publishing route?
It’s something I’d like to know more about if anyone has any links or info.
A very happy Easter to you all.
Thanks Chris. it was originally published by Unbound but the deal expired and so the rights fell to me and I republished myself.
Once can only hope! Motherhood is THE most important role and it has been totally undermined.