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ursel doran's avatar

For all here and all you may know that could / should be paying attention!

Gold grinding down to the fall lift off!

http://www.321gold.com/charts/seasonal_gold.html

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Dominic Frisby's avatar

Yes, I see seasonal patterns as a secondary not primary indicator, but gold is one of the more reliable ones

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Mrs Bucket's avatar

We're all involved in the very difficult world of trying to predict the FUTURE and I know I'm naughty pointing to the PAST, that's easy but can't resist one more: 3i Group, up 700% since Covid, even after recent Trump Tariff Tantrums in April. I've been in an out, just cannot believe how valuable this conglomerate has become. Definitely, one to study. The future? I don't think we're taking enough notice of what China's doing, eg supplying Iran with serious hardware and Taiwan of course.

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All Mouth And Trousers's avatar

"Sell in May and go away" used to be a maxim in the City.

I doubt there are many people who want to hold positions when they are on holiday so it could be that. However I'm with you 100% - Gold is going up or more precisely fiat is going down. The UK and US will have to print money so borrow fiat and buy gold - If you can afford it of course

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Dominic Frisby's avatar

Thank you

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Capital Employed's avatar

Thanks Dom, nice update. As long as they keep printing gold will do well.

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Dominic Frisby's avatar

Deficits and debasing ...

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Brian Clavin's avatar

Nice Work.

Thank You!

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Dominic Frisby's avatar

Thank you

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Mark D's avatar

The extent of the pause is something I have been contemplating for a few weeks now. Gold is approx. 50% above its 36 month MA which is a place it visited three times from 2006 to 2008. Each time then it corrected. Between May 06 and Mar 08 it corrected from 51% to 21% and took nearly eighteen months to do it. However in Sept 1978 it got to 50% and continued on upwards to 190% above the 36 month MA. A truly parabolic rise with a peak in Jan 1980.

Despite the global debt woes I am not fully convinced that we can go onwards and upwards from here without a bigger correction.

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Mark D's avatar

May 06 to Jul 07 for the correction of 51% to 21%, not May 06 and Mar 08 as I wrote above.

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Dominic Frisby's avatar

I hear you but you get corrections in time as well as in price and this seems to be one of those

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Mark D's avatar

Agreed, but so far the distance to 36 month MA has gone down from a high of 51% to currently 45%. Not much of a correction. There was year of price inaction in 2006/07. However I think the drivers for gold are much stronger now and so on balance I think its going up quicker from here. A sovereign debt crisis might be a good catalyst.....

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Dominic Frisby's avatar

Indeed ….

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Mrs Bucket's avatar

Gold, schmould. Goldman Sachs Bank up 430% in 5 years. It's up 70% since the media MASSIVELY freaked out slamming Trump early April, deliberately scared the cr*p out of everyone, FTSE/Wall St/S&P/NAS now near ATHs. Talking of the East, do we have a date yet for China's Taiwan invasion? And are we all watching the volume of massive missiles China is supplying to Iran?

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Dominic Frisby's avatar

Goldman Sachs may have been a good investment but it is not money

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Mrs Bucket's avatar

Just banked it, looks like money to me. Gold is just a derivative, in a crisis you cannot use it to buy food, if you went to pay someone in gold sovereigns they’d follow you home

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Mark D's avatar

From 2000 to 2011 GS lost over 80% relative to gold. It did well then until 2016, but has gained nothing since

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