Or at least sizing does
Exactly mirrors my recent experience. My takeaway... 'keep your eye on the ball'. (I love Dominic's humility).
Good article. I am naturally bearish so I think a major crash is coming as well. I’m going to wait until UK Autumn before taking any positions.
If you could have predicted the Ukraine pop and drop or the Chinese zero covid policy being sustained when it was clear to every man and his dog (apart from President Ji) that it wasn't working, the madness of COP26, you'd be very welcome at any party given the concomitant ability to turn water into wine.
Looking back and saying you could have done this or that better is the short road to madness (I know!)
You could have made the sage decision I did in March 2020 and come out of equities completely because we had been in the longest bull run in history. Tech stocks, even then were over valued, unicorns rife and Tesla had yet to turn a profit; so many companies were, I thought, zombies relying on unprecedented QE. Do I regret it? Not at all, I slept well at night although the mattress was a bit bumpy with the cash underneath.
As for Mr Druckenmiller, he was hugely successful but initially largely using other peoples' money and with a significant salary; it's a bit different when you are using the wife's grocery money or, heaven forfend, The White Company bill.
Frankly, I doubt if anyone has the slightest clue of how things will pan out. Huge artificial liquidity, ludicrously low interest rates, major banks with massive derivative exposure (JP Morgan $100T in nominal derivatives), US housing bubble bursting (UK to follow), bank contagion, an ECB which is making things up as they go along, good Ol' Joe blocking pipelines and drilling permits while making deals with Venezuela , Boris still thinking we can go all electric when there isn't any, Vlad Putin's finger hovering over the nuclear button (he's got a thing about London hasn't he?), food shortages leading to civil unrest............? That's enough but there's a pundit who bets both ways on all of them (Jim Rickards has actually specified two dates (so far) for a 1928 crash and world depression.
Why, oh, why should you be wearing sack cloth and ashes, scourging yourself for a couple of (possible) errors in judgement. Shit happens, but I will continue to pay attention to what you write because, largely, it makes sense.
Grab a G&T (remembering in labelling products the largest ingredient should always come first.
Thanks for sharing.
The notion of streaks of good or bad luck seems suspect to me. If you keep making investments long enough it's statistically likely you'll have several good bets or several bad bets on the trot. But unless you think that's reflective of improvements or declines in your judgement it's not telling you much. And if your judgements have improved or declined, that's surely what you want to address.