I share your concerns about fiat currency, government debt, inflation and all the rest, so I have spent quite some time thinking about BTC and these vehicles (with your help - I bought your book back in 2015!).
The short version of my thoughts on these Bitcoin Treasury Companies is: imagine that their share prices were expressed in Bitcoin, not USD or GBP. What direction would they move? Down. It is the inevitable logic of the arithmetic of the whole mNAV rope-trick.
That tells me that it is better to own BTC itself than a treasury company where, in addition to exposure to a very volatile asset, you are running the risk of multiple erosion (mNAV>1 makes no economic sense long term).
Agreed, it is good to be able to buy the exposure on a platform like ii, some of the treasury companies are leveraged (cuts both ways) and there is a tax advantage if you make a gain in your SIPP. If. But if you lose money the losses are not available to offset.
Metaplanet (whose thoughtful CEO I saw interviewed - thanks for the link) saw a 25% price decline yesterday - I have no clue why, but it does illustrate the massive volatility.
I hope you do make a gain, but it's too bubbly for me.
Fair enough, Keith. I'm not touching my own BTC, but - for now - the treasury companies are outperforming. The same will happen in reverse, when we get the next bear market. It's for the speculative part of the portfolio!
The Comstock shareholders meeting was quite high energy; favourite answer was to the question was about licensing their biofuel “..we have cracked the code to allow countries to become energy independent”
Hi Dominic - great piece and very interesting. I have been doing a bit of sniffing around and come up with the following (below) thoughts?
A U.S. law firm is considering potential legal claims against Nasdaq-listed healthcare technology firm Semler Scientific, on behalf of the Bitcoin-holding company’s shareholders—though it hasn't stopped Semler from buying up BTC.
Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. on Thursday said it is looking into whether Semler Scientific violated federal securities laws or engaged in other unlawful business practices. In a statement, the law firm urged Semler’s shareholders to contact its lawyers in relation to the investigation.
The medical device company revealed in February that the U.S. Department of Justice might file a legal complaint against its business.
Just dumped Semler. Given it room to run, but was approaching a 20% loss, which is about as much as I'm prepared to tolerate in a speculative trade like this one.
Doesn't mean it won't work, and I'll continue to keep an eye on it. However, I've learned the hard way not to let a loss greater than 15% turn into a -30% and then a -60% loss. Better to nip the bleed in the bud and monitor for a re-entry.
Hi Dominic
I share your concerns about fiat currency, government debt, inflation and all the rest, so I have spent quite some time thinking about BTC and these vehicles (with your help - I bought your book back in 2015!).
The short version of my thoughts on these Bitcoin Treasury Companies is: imagine that their share prices were expressed in Bitcoin, not USD or GBP. What direction would they move? Down. It is the inevitable logic of the arithmetic of the whole mNAV rope-trick.
That tells me that it is better to own BTC itself than a treasury company where, in addition to exposure to a very volatile asset, you are running the risk of multiple erosion (mNAV>1 makes no economic sense long term).
Agreed, it is good to be able to buy the exposure on a platform like ii, some of the treasury companies are leveraged (cuts both ways) and there is a tax advantage if you make a gain in your SIPP. If. But if you lose money the losses are not available to offset.
Metaplanet (whose thoughtful CEO I saw interviewed - thanks for the link) saw a 25% price decline yesterday - I have no clue why, but it does illustrate the massive volatility.
I hope you do make a gain, but it's too bubbly for me.
Fair enough, Keith. I'm not touching my own BTC, but - for now - the treasury companies are outperforming. The same will happen in reverse, when we get the next bear market. It's for the speculative part of the portfolio!
The Comstock shareholders meeting was quite high energy; favourite answer was to the question was about licensing their biofuel “..we have cracked the code to allow countries to become energy independent”
Noted. I couldn’t attend the meeting yesterday, but I have a long train journey today so I’m planning to listen to it then.
Great piece Dominic.
I have held Semler in the past and sold and now price lower than then so have just started to buy again.
Microstrategy looks very top heavy so will wait for a drop hopefully.
U.K. company Coinsilium Group Ltd. Seems to playing the BTC treasury concept along with other Web3 blockchain. I’ve a small punt.
Those guys have been around a while - they are a perfect fit
Hi Dominic - great piece and very interesting. I have been doing a bit of sniffing around and come up with the following (below) thoughts?
A U.S. law firm is considering potential legal claims against Nasdaq-listed healthcare technology firm Semler Scientific, on behalf of the Bitcoin-holding company’s shareholders—though it hasn't stopped Semler from buying up BTC.
Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. on Thursday said it is looking into whether Semler Scientific violated federal securities laws or engaged in other unlawful business practices. In a statement, the law firm urged Semler’s shareholders to contact its lawyers in relation to the investigation.
The medical device company revealed in February that the U.S. Department of Justice might file a legal complaint against its business.
Well, that explains why the share. Price isn’t moving. Why the other bitcoin treasury companies are. I shall write this up tomorrow.
What are your thoughts on the Comstock shareholders meeting?
I will report back on this
Incase anyone missed this interview with Comstock CEO
https://youtu.be/ArdkZAlIKJw?si=md2_yhfeVGpBwvfQ
Dominic, given you are buying more BTC exposure what % of overall portfolio are you aiming for (excluding property)?
In the Dolce Far Niente we have 5% allocation.
Personally I am much higher
I often think I should not bother with anything else and be 100% allocated
My target was 4% but through HODL now 10.5%
In other news LTBR is up 45% today, the gift that keeps on giving.
Vinanz plc (ticker BTC on the london stock exchange) is another bitcoin treasury company. Have you come across those in your research, Dominic?
Just dumped Semler. Given it room to run, but was approaching a 20% loss, which is about as much as I'm prepared to tolerate in a speculative trade like this one.
Doesn't mean it won't work, and I'll continue to keep an eye on it. However, I've learned the hard way not to let a loss greater than 15% turn into a -30% and then a -60% loss. Better to nip the bleed in the bud and monitor for a re-entry.