I was going to write about money transfer company Wise (WISE.L/WSE.US) this week.
The company recently listed on the Nasdaq, demoting its London listing to secondary, and the prospects looked rosy. UK-listed companies trade at lower valuations because they are listed in the UK. America not only has greater depths of capital, it values tech, growth and success. In the UK they get ignored, taxed or regulated - or all three.
And there is another thing. Have you ever tried being an American and sending money abroad? Boy, is it tiresome. And slow, and bureaucratic, and expensive. Wise solves a genuine problem of cross-border payments and solves it well. Its user base was therefore growing.
Meanwhile, its infrastructure is increasingly becoming embedded throughout the banking system itself, the plumbing behind international payments.
But then on Monday Belgium announced it was investigating Wise, as it suspected the company is “used by criminals to launder the proceeds of fraud, corruption and drug trafficking”, and the stock promptly sank 15%.
I have little doubt that Wise, like Revolut and every other payments platform, is used for money laundering, just as Facebook is used for hate speech, and WhatsApp to deal drugs. Money itself is used for money-laundering. Banks are used for money laundering. The stock market is used for money laundering. Cash is used for money laundering too. I guess, the question is whether the company is guilty of “non-compliance with anti-money laundering legislation”.
Maybe it turns out to be procedural and manageable - the rebound in the stock suggests that is the case. Maybe it becomes something more serious. We shall see - and I shall probably wait before committing my precious capital. How long will I wait? Not sure. These kinds of investigations have a tendency to drag on.
But the episode brings me to why bitcoin was invented int he first place, and this week I have had several worried messages about it. Do I still like it? And, more importantly. WTF is going on?
As I’m sure you know, the price has fallen quite sharply.
On one of my investor WhatsApp groups, which has some smart people, many are asking if it really is game over for bitcoin. “Does ANYONE have a good document about the actual use cases of bitcoin?” asked one. “I simply don’t see the point. I see a 15-year track record of promises that it will change the world but with zero actual use cases in my life.”
Somebody else chimed in, “The world is changing meaningfully with AI, chips, oil, geopolitics, rare earths, gold, silver etc. I’m just not sure bitcoin fits”
These observations are quite valid. What’s it for? You just need to look at the price to see it isn’t a hedge against inflation. Nobody uses it for micropayments. It hasn’t solved financial exclusion in the Third World. It’s not private. It’s not used as a day-to-day medium of exchange. It hasn’t replaced fiat. It hasn’t fixed any of things it was supposed to fix. Quantum computing’s going to take it out. What’s the point?
Remember: narrative follows price. Not the other way round.
Bear markets are vicious. They grind you down psychologically. They make you doubt the underlying asset itself.
So let’s address that question. W hat is the point of bitcoin?
