Namibia sits on the south-west coast of Africa. Below Angola, above South Africa, with Botswana to the east.
Portuguese explorers first reached the coast here in the 1480s. No natural harbour, brutal surf, cold Atlantic fog, the Namib Desert running straight into the sea, little access to fresh water. They planted crosses to mark their claims, turned around and went home again, never to return.
Today that coast is known as the Skeleton Coast because of shipwrecks and whale bones.
Three hundred years later, having decided there was too much tropical disease in Gambia, the British looked at Namibia as a possible penal colony. They decided it was too inhumane.
It was Germans and Finns who eventually settled on the coast another hundred years on.
Namibia is about three and a half times the size of the UK, and yet its population is only 3 million. It is big and empty. Most of it is desert.
I’ve got more endless expanse shots than I know what to do with. Here is just one of them. Plus a short vid shot from a hot air balloon which gives you an idea of the sheer endlessness of the place.
Even in the capital city, Windhoek, there is just so much space.
The only two places in the world that are less densely populated are Greenland and Mongolia. Namibia beats even Australia and Mauritania, which is mostly Sahara desert.
Demographically, the country is roughly 87% black, 6% white and 5% mixed race, with the Ovambo people to the north making up about half the population. I saw a few Asians while I was there too.
A country of extremes
There are still bushmen and other ancient hunter-gatherer people living as they have lived for centuries, yet other parts of the country are extremely modern. There are shopping centres to rival our own, good roads (the best in Africa, I was told), great restaurants, commercial farms and more. About half the population is urban.
The national language is English, adopted after the country gained independence from South Africa in 1990, but I found that people, black and white, would as often speak amongst themselves in Afrikaans and, up north, Ovambo. On the coast German is widely spoken. (The country was a German colony from the 1880s until World War I, when South Africa, then British, invaded. Hence it has great beer.)
The controlling political force is the South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO), which has governed since independence in 1990. SWAPO is nominally social democratic, but there are still strong liberation-era left-wing instincts, as evidenced by streets in the capital renamed after independence: Fidel Castro Street, Robert Mugabe Avenue and so on.
All being said, Namibia functions well.
It is a stable democracy with rule of law, an independent judiciary (the government sometimes loses cases), relatively free markets and low crime by African (and European) standards.
Immigration law is tight too. Having seen the problems stemming from mass immigration into South Africa, Namibia has taken a more controlled approach.
Indeed I heard repeated frustrations from mining companies trying to obtain visas for geologists and mining engineers where the local expertise either does not exist or is employed elsewhere.
Official unemployment is 37%, but I heard from several different sources that the real number is above 50%. 50%! Very sad.
Nominal GDP per capita sits around US$5,000, roughly double that adjusted for purchasing power, which puts it above most of sub-Saharan Africa. The World Bank classifies Namibia as a lower-middle-income country, alongside countries such as Albania, Argentina and Belize. But these numbers are misleading.
The country has vast wealth through its natural resources and related industries: uranium, copper, diamonds, fishing and tourism. Spread that revenue across just 3 million people and the averages look impressive.
There is also serious rural poverty.
Namibia combines first-world infrastructure with third-world unemployment.
The currency is pegged to the South African rand, not one I would have chosen. Official inflation sits in the 2-3% range.
About 88% of the country’s sovereign debt is held domestically, and there appears to be healthy demand for its bonds. The country has also recently begun a sovereign wealth fund, which is reportedly growing at an impressive 16% since 2022. The central bank has recently also implemented a gold acquisition programme. Kudos.
The country has high institutional savings and one the larger stock exchanges in sub-Saharan Africa.
Food is cheap, protein in particular. The country has an enormous cattle herd, almost as large as its population. Recent outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease in neighbouring countries are therefore a cause for concern, as you can imagine. (Not my bag, but I reckon there is an opportunity exporting Namibian biltong to the UK, where it is expensive. I brought back loads).
Other goods, however, can be expensive because the country relies heavily on imports.
If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I use and recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.
The main industries - tourism and natural resources
Ports are expanding. The railways are not great, though I hear they will be improved. The roads, however, are excellent, as I said.
Namibia is also the world’s third-largest uranium producer after Kazakhstan and Canada. Chinese interests hold majority stakes in the country’s three largest uranium mines, not to mention other metals.
Oil and gas have recently been discovered offshore. Shell plc is one of the pioneers.
As for gold, Namibia only really became a meaningful gold player after independence, since when roughly 15 million ounces have been discovered, much of it alongside copper. Among the larger players is B2 Gold (BTO.TO), which is well known in the country. Large parts of the country remain un- or under-explored. And I think that is where a lot of the big opportuities lie.
There also appear to be rare earth deposits in some abundance. Kendrik Resources (KEN.L) recently made some progress here. Solar, wind and hydrogen projects are also attracting investment too
Chinese money helped build the SWAPO headquarters, and they are investing significantly in mines in the country.
Of note is that the USA recently spent heavily developing their embassy. It is big. Former Trump attorney John Giordano is now ambassador, a surprisingly high -profile appointment for such a low-profile country.
One theory I heard repeatedly was that, given deteriorating US relations with South Africa, Washington increasingly sees Namibia as strategically important in terms of Atlantic access, energy routes and influence in the south Atlantic. Not quite the Panama Canal or Strait of Hormuz, but it could be something of a chokepoint.
Namibia feels like a country at the cusp of something.
It has space, resources, energy, political stability and strategic importance.
Next week I want to look in more detail at Namibia as an investment destination, particularly its mining sector, where some very interesting things may be developing.
My thanks go to to Rowland Brown and Chanel Marais of Cirrus Capital for bringing me to Namibia and for organizing what was a brilliant and instructuve conference.
Thank you for reading the Flying Frisby.
Until next time,
Dominic
