You’ve probably heard: gold has just had the worst month in its history.
Given that gold is older than the earth itself, that’s quite a long history.
What headline writers actually mean, even if they don’t know it, is that: in US dollar terms, gold just had its worst month since 1971, at a stretch 1789.
But the US dollar is a bogus, fiat measure, and the sooner we start using constant money as our unit of account, the more truthful the world will become.
Gold hasn’t changed. It doesn’t. What has swung, violently as ever, is the price of fiat.
The move looks more extreme than it is because of where the month started. Gold began March near a high, around $5,400, and then sold off hard. A thousand-dollar swing sounds a lot, but after the run we’ve just had it’s not especially surprising. Indeed I would go as far as to say it’s normal.
Here is a 3 year chart of gold to put the March move in some perspective. I’ve also added a very useful indicator - the 233-day exponential moving average - in red.
233 is a Fibonacci number, and with roughly 250 trading days in a year, the 233 EMA works out as roughly the one-year average, but with the added magical quality that Fibonacci numbers often seem to have. In this case, it caught the exact bottom, as you can see.
What effectively has happened is that after a long run-up gold has pulled back to the one-year average and bounced off it.
What we’re seeing is normal behaviour in a secular bull market.
Corrections feel violent at the time. They always do. But this is what bull markets do.
My view remains unchanged. We are somewhere in the middle of a multi-year move that ultimately takes gold into the $7,000 to $10,000 range.
By the way, if you’re interested in learning more about gold, the latest edition of Charlie Morris’s Atlas Pulse is out now. It remains in my view the most level-headed gold letter out there. And, best of all, it’s free. Read it here.
The bigger point is not the chart, it’s the backdrop. I keep saying it, but you absolutely must own some gold in your portfolio, particularly if you are in the UK, indeed anywhere in Western Europe. We have big, big problems coming down the tracks and they are going to result in the further debasement of the national currency.
Debt levels are rising, not falling. Governments are spending more, not less. The cost of servicing that debt is going up. The political incentives all point one way: more issuance, more intervention, more currency debasement.
The UK is a particularly clear example. You can already see the strain in the gilt market, the pressure on public finances and the complete lack of both political will and ability to address it in any meaningful way. No party is going to fix this. The system itself is broken.
There is only one way fiat money is going and it’s the same way it’s always gone.
If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.
Treat pullbacks like this for what they are: opportunities.
If you don’t own gold, you are relying entirely on a monetary system that is under visible strain. That in itself is a bet, whether you realise it or not.
Onto more positive news - or is it? Squeaky bum time in Nicaragua
My largest position, and a core holding for many readers, is Metals Exploration (MTL.L).
Broker Hannam has just put a 37p price target on this 13p stock, implying roughly 3x upside. The current market cap is about £400 million.
The share price has pulled back sharply after its recent run to 19p to around 12–13p, largely tracking the ups and downs of gold.
The company has just issued a construction update, following a recent site visit to the main project in Nicaragua, La India, attended by major shareholders including Nick Candy.
Execution is everything now, and it’s squeaky bum time.
