This has been for ages one of those things that has been going to happen that never actually happens.
But on Monday there were signs it is actually going to happen.
I’m talking about some kind of financial crisis in Japan, whether in its currency, its debt markets or a bit of both. Because it’s so far away, we tend to overlook in Western Europe what a big deal Japan is: but it’s the world’s 4th largest economy - only the US, China and Germany have greater GDP.
But its debt-to-GDP is 230% - 4 times Germany’s (~63%), more than double the UK’s (100%) and almost double the US’s (~124%). But it has sustained these “unsustainable” levels for so long it’s now normal. Shorting the yen has been the great widow maker.
In addition to roughly $10 trillion of government debt, Japan also carries around $8 trillion of non-financial sector debt, including corporate and household borrowing. This is not new. What may be new is the market’s willingness to continue absorbing it at the margin.
On Monday Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called a snap election for February 8th, seeking a stronger mandate for her coalition government. She has high approval ratings, I read, and is looking to capitalise on them, restoring the Liberal Democratic Party's majority in the powerful lower house. Even so, though she is favourite, this is also a gamble.
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Takaichi will run on a platform of more stimulus. The worry is how she “pays” for her proposed cuts to food taxes. It’s not totally unlike the Liz Truss situation, when she proposed tax cuts without material cuts to spending.
How much is enough?
I just don’t get it with governments. Something doesn’t have the desired effect. Instead of stopping and reassessing, they do more. Ooh, this petrol isn’t putting out the fire. Let’s add more petrol.
But the result of her announcement was that Japanese borrowing costs rose sharply to all-time highs (again). 30-year yields posted their biggest daily jump since 2003, and 10-year yields surged 19 basis points. Not quite such a record breaking rise but the sharpest since 2022.
Japan’s bond market, long regarded as the safest and dullest corner of global finance, is suddenly being treated as risky. Compounding the problem is the fact that Japanese insurers, historically reliable buyers of long-dated bonds when yields rose, have become net sellers. That removes a key stabilising force.
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At some point the Bank of Japan may step in and buy bonds to calm things down. That’s what usually happens. The risk, however, is that Japan is deemed even more fiscally permissive, the yen weakens further, and inflationary pressures stoke.
If the yen carry trade unravels - that is the financial world borrowing Japanese yen at low rates and using the money to invest elsewhere - then everything unravels, and we get the 2020s version of 2008. It’s been threatening to happen a long time, but it never quite does. But hot money - aka liquidity - will get sucked out of everything from gold and silver to the stock market to the bond markets to bitcoin, and the world gets a massive margin call.
The bottom line is that this raises the risk of more global market volatility. If Japan, long the calmest corner of global finance, becomes unstable, everything priced on the assumption of low and stable interest rates needs to repice. Risk-on flips to risk-off. Speculative assets get hit.
Add all the Greenland stuff to the mix and everything looks very shaky all of a sudden.
Periods like this are not necessarily about bold calls. They’re about deciding where you refuse to be sloppy.
So I am taking some action.
