The Great Orange Man’s Market Moves: What's Next?

I’ve had a flood of new readers sign up to the Flying Frisby this week, I’m delighted to report, largely as a result of this article on bitcoin treasury companies and of this video on North Sea oil and the next Labour U-turn, which has been doing the rounds on the net.

So welcome everyone. I hope you enjoy the ride.

Today’s piece is going to be a bit of a hotchpotch, as I gather my thoughts and tidy up a few loose ends.

We’ll start with the macro. Are we in a bull market? Are the animal spirits back in command? Or have we just gone through a bear market rally?

It all depends on tariffs, I guess, and what is going on in the Great Orange Man’s mind. What plans does he have? That I cannot answer, but I will say the S&P500 looks like it might have just put in a lower high.

We want to be above that blue line.

If he goes full tariff again, all bets - well most - are off.

But thanks to the Great Orange Man’s pronouncements on uranium, our speculation Lightbridge Fuels (NASDAQ:LTBR) is now enjoying another of its spikes. If he goes full tariff again, all bets - well most - are off.

But thanks to the Great Orange Man’s pronouncements on uranium, our speculation Lightbridge Fuels (NASDAQ:LTBR) is now enjoying another of its spikes.

Sell the spikes, buy the dips has been the play here. We are on one such spike now, so if the recent pattern continues (it won’t continue forever, nothing does, but it might for a bit) then lighten up between $15 and $20 and buy if it goes back to $9 is the trade.

Sell the spikes, buy the dips has been the play here. We are on one such spike now, so if the recent pattern continues (it won’t continue forever, nothing does, but it might for a bit) then lighten up between $15 and $20 and buy if it goes back to $9 is the trade.

We have quite a well defined, trade-able range emerging here, as defined by the blue lines below.

I don’t see it going back to the $2.50-$3 area, where we were lucky enough to first stumble upon this stock, but $8.50-9 looks like the new floor. For now.

Remember: this was an $800 stock once upon a time, so there is a lot of upside left. One should probably keep some money on the table, in case we don’t get the dip.

The next Starmer U-turn

Turning next to the issue of the re-opening of the North Sea. Since posting that video our Glorious Leader has tightened ties with the EU, and in particular relevance here, its net zero goals. The UK now commits to net zero obligations “at least as ambitious as the EU”. “Want to get out of net zero?,” says Lord Frost in the Telegraph, “Tough: you can’t, unless the EU agrees”.

That said I am sure Captain FlipFlop will find a way of flipflopping his way round any North Sea ties and then spinning it.

There is a review this week. Surely even this government will realise importing Norwegian gas for (net) zero tax take, fewer jobs and a higher carbon footprint than producing our own makes (net) zero sense. More importantly it is gifting Reform. Maybe the needs of the Treasury mean Milibrain - Miliband gets overruled. We will know more as soon as today.

Adding another bitcoin treasury company to my portfolio

In a moment, I am going to take a look at Comstock Lode (NYSE:LODE), further to its AGM this week. I know I keep talking about this company, but it might be the one we all retire on - hence my outsized attention.

But first I also want to continue on the bitcoin treasury company story.

(Despite the outperformance of the treasury companies of late, I still prefer bitcoin and think it should be a core holding. The treasury companies are rather more speculative. However, given the hassle involved, I understand why some in the UK prefer the treasury companies).

How about this for nuts? The UK’s Smarter Web Company (ISIN: GB00BPJHZ015) hit a market cap of £175 million yesterday. Its assets: it has about £5 million in bitcoin.

The dude who founded it, Andrew Webley, was a month ago running a web design firm in Guildford with net assets of less than £50,000. In the company's Retail Investor IPO document, he committed to invest a minimum of £30,000...through his ISA”. (h/t Glen Goodman)

This will not end well.

And we have the FCA to thank. It has made it so difficult to buy bitcoin, investors are buying this company and others like it instead.

If, like many readers, you are playing this one, make sure you get your original investment out, is my advice …

Meanwhile, Metaplanet (3350:TYO) briefly lost a third of its value last week, falling below ¥800. Now it’s above ¥1,200, at all-time highs, trading at 450% of the value of its bitcoin.

It’s a mania all right.

I’m adding another position, in a stock which has some recent history of manias.

What is it? Ah-ha …